Apologies on the lack of updates, Election.ie Towers was moving over the past week. The cable broadband was installed yesterday and we’re raring to go. All hands inside the car!

Isolated reports of Fianna Fail canvassing over the past week in Dublin and Limerick lead credence to the growing feeling that a Dail dissolution and a snap election is on the cards. Despite this, Paddy Power is now quoting 13/8 odds on a 2010 election, 7/4 on a 2011 and 2012 elections.

Here’s the history of selected Paddy Power’s year of election odds versus the Live Register figures for the end of 2008 through to 2010:

Not forgetting the banking crisis of September 2008, Budget 09 in December 2008, the Emergency Budget in April 2009 and the bite of negative equity throughout.

Paddy Power is also quoting the follow odds on the next minister to resign:

• 4/6    Mary Harney
• 11/4  Eamon O Cuiv
• 6/1    John Gormley
• 6/1    Noel Dempsey
• 16/1  Mary Coughlan
• 16/1  Brendan Smith
• 20/1  Brian Lenihan
• 33/1  Dermot Ahern
• 33/1  Michael Martin
• 33/1  Mary Hanafin
• 33/1  Eamon Ryan

Odds from Paddy Power, Live Register figures from the Central Statistics Office

Two more people have died from the H1N1 (Swine Flu). The HSE has confirmed this afternoon that these male  patients had underlying medical conditions and were from the east of the country. This brings the total number of confirmed cases of Swine Flue deaths to 24.

The HSE and the Minister (all the way from New Zealand) extend their condolences to the families of the patients.

So Minister Harney is in New Zealand early for St Patrick’s Day on Government business. According to the Department of Health and Children, her itenerary is as follows:

(Some names and venue details have been omitted)

Tuesday 9 March – Auckland

Rest morning

4.30pm

Official Briefing

7.00pm

Dinner with members of Irish Community

Wednesday 10 March – Auckland

9.30am

Depart Hotel for Manukau City. (Transport – Minivan)

10.00am – 1:00pm

Visit Kidz First Childrens Hospital in Manukau City

Discussion: Paediatric links with the community, and linking with general practice to reduce acute demand on hospitals

Return to hotel

2.45pm

Meeting with Mayor of Manukau City

3.45pm

Meet with members of Irish Community in Auckland

7.30pm

Dinner with Enterprise Ireland Irish Company and clients

Thursday 11 March – Auckland

8.40am

Depart hotel (Transport – Minivan)

9.00am – 10:00am

Meeting with Professor in Dept of Paediatrics: Child and Youth Health, University of Auckland at Auckland City Hospital.

Discussion on Child Health Research

10.30am – 12.00

Chief Executive of the Auckland Regional Chamber of Commerce & Industry, Director of both the Auckland Chamber and NZ Chambers of Commerce & Industry, and Secretary-General of NZ’s National Committee of the International Chamber of Commerce.

2.15pm

NZ Members of the Global Irish Network

4.00pm

Meet with Mayor of Waitakere City. Waitakere City has a sister city friendship agreement with Galway City.

5.30pm

Reception jointly hosted by Enterprise Ireland and Tourism Ireland  with senior representatives of Auckland based companies, tourism and trade, already with links to Ireland or with potential.

7.30pm

Interview with journalist

Friday 12 March – Auckland

9.30am        Depart hotel (Transport – Minivan)

10.00am – 1.30pm

Meeting with

- GM of Starship Childrens Health and National Womens Hospital
- Director of Child Health, Paediatric Emergency Dept, Starship Childrens Hospital, Auckland City
- Developmental Paediatrician, Paediatric Neurology, Starship Childrens Hospital, Auckland City

Discussion:

• Speciality nurse out-reach programme
• Emergency department performance management and wait targets
• Adult – paediatric – maternity tri-location
• Examples of process improvements, and IT use, medication safety
• The promotion of patient safety and the assurance of quality

2.00pm to 5pm

Meet with Head of School of Population

Discussion:

• Disease risk factor trends
• Getting ahead of the chronic disease trends
• Screening policy

5.30pm

Dinner hosted by Honorary Consul (Transport Minivan)

10.00pm        Return to hotel

Saturday 13 March – Auckland

11.30am

Walk to assembly point of Parade

12.00pm

Participate in Auckland’s St Patrick’s Parade

1.00pm

Parade concludes

1.45pm

Return to hotel

6.00pm

Attend St Patrick’s festival banquet

Guests of Honour – NZ Prime Minister.

Attendance of 400.

The Prime Minister will speak for five minutes and propose a toast to St Patrick. The Minister to respond with an equal duration speech and propose a toast to the Irish and the friends of the Irish in New Zealand. The audience will be a cross-section of the local community, predominately with Irish connections and many leaders in their particular fields of endeavour.

7.45pm

The Prime Minister is introduced

7.50pm

Prime Minister speaks

7.55pm

Minister Harney is introduced

7.56pm

Minister speaks

8.00pm

MC thanks and evening continues

Sunday 14 March – Auckland – Wellington

11.30am

Depart hotel

12.00pm

Live interview on community radio programme.

1.00pm

Attend Irish Community Field Day

4.30pm

Depart Auckland to Wellington

5.30pm

Arrive Wellington

Transfer to hotel

6.30pm

Depart hotel

6.30pm  – 8:00pm

Reception with Wellington Irish Society

8.30pm

Dinner hosted by Honorary Consul

Return to hotel

Monday 15 March – Wellington

9am to 10am

Meet with Minister of Trade

10.30am to11.30am

Meeting with Enterprise Ireland Company and Ministry of Social Development

2.00pm  – 4:00pm

Meeting with Pharmac

4.15 to 5pm

Meeting with Minister of Health and other health officials

5.00pm – 6.15pm

Parlimentary Reception, hosted by Prime Minister,and other NZ Ministers will also be in attendance.

6.30pm – 8.00pm

Meeting with Hutt Valley Irish Society (Transport – Minivan)

8.30pm

Dinner hosted by Minister for Health

Return to hotel

Tuesday 16 March – Wellington – Auckland

10am to 11.30am

Meet with Chief Advisor, Sector Capability

11.30am to 1pm

Meet with Director General of Health and Chief Executive of Ministry for Health

Discussion:

• Patient Safety and Quality
• Performance management/National Health Index
• Licencing (Legal basis for opening practice/facility)
• Credentialling

1.45pm

Meet at main entrance to Parliament

2.00pm

Visit and be presented to NZ Parliament

5.30pm

Meeting with members of NZ Ireland Parliamentary Friendship Group

7.30pm

Depart for Wellington airport

8.30pm

Depart Wellington to Auckland

9.30pm

Arrive Auckland

Transfer to hotel

Wednesday 17 March – Auckland
9.00am

Interview at hotel with journalist

10.30am

Depart hotel

11.00am

Attend St Patrick’s Day mass at the Auckland Irish Society followed by AIS President

Return to hotel

5.15pm

Depart hotel

5.30pm

Attend St Patrick’s Day Consular reception. 200 guests including a representative of the NZ Prime Minister, the Mayors, or representatives of the four regions of Auckland and the Chairman of the Auckland Regional Council, the Dean of the Auckland Consular Corps.

Mayor of Auckland City, will propose a toast to the President and the people of Ireland. The Minister to respond.

7.00pm

Reception concludes

Thursday 18 March – Auckland – Christchurch

8.45am

Depart hotel( Consular car + Taxi)

10.05am

Depart Auckland Domestic Airport on to Christchurch

11.25am

Arrive Christchurch

Transfer to hotel (Transport –Minivan)

1.40pm

Depart hotel

2.00pm – 4:00pm

Meetings at Pegasus Health, Christchurch

Return to hotel (Transport –Minivan)

6.15pm

Depart hotel  (Transport –Minivan)

6.30pm  – 8.00pm

Meeting with Christchurch Irish Society

Return to hotel

Friday 19 March – Christchurch

9.15am

Depart hotel

9.30am to 11.30am

Visit NZ Antarctic Heritage Trust and Antarctic Centre

12.30 to 4pm

Primary Care accessing the peripheral community

Saturday 20 March – Christchurch – Auckland

Return to Auckland in afternoon

Sunday 21 March

10.00am

Depart hotel for airport – Government car and taxi

12.25pm

Minister and party depart New Zealand to Sydney

Photo by raymond crowley on Flickr (CC)

Just as the explosive news that over 57,000 x-rays were not reviewed by a radiologist for over four years in the Tallaght Hospital, it comes to light that Mary Harney has jetted off to New Zealand a week early for her St Patrick’s Day trip.

This morning in the Dail, Enda Kenny said that Harney was in New Zealand. Cowen responded by insisting that she was there on government business.

Mary Harney granted just a single radio interview to Morning Ireland this morning.

What we know about the case so far

• One person whose x-ray was not read by a radiologist has died, another is seeking treatment.
• From the MI interview, the case  appears to have been highlighted after a change in guard at the head of Tallaght Hospital. Prof Conlon, the new head of hospital became aware of the problem last Summer.
• Harney knew about the problem back in December. Note the gap in months.
• Harney said she found about about the full scale of the problem yesterday, yet she said that the problem was “not a huge scandal” on Morning Ireland this morning as it only amounted to 6% of all x-rays taken in the period. Another three month gap.

Media and signals

Cowen was speaking in the Dail about putting measures in place to expedit dealing with the matter, but he seems to contrary Harney’s insistence that this was not a huge scandal. Distancing before a reshuffle?

Harney has only given that interview to Morning Ireland on the matter. Newstalk was unable to secure her for comment. Is that government business keeping her tied up?

Confidence in the Tallaght Hospital

On the back of misdiagnosis scandals at Ennis Regional Hospital and Portlaoise’s Midlands Regional Hospital and the centralisation of cancer diagnosis and care services in centres of excellence around the country, the mind boggles on how one of the biggest hospitals in the country could treat tens of thousands of patients this way for years.

Not only that. Tallaght Hospital is a teaching hospital. If the practise of not reviewing x-rays by a qualified radiologist was occurring at the hospital for years, what other practices of patient care were imparted to young student doctors? Can we be confident that the next generation of doctors taught there?

Tallaght General Hospital is rereading the x-rays not reviewed by a radiologist and the HSE says that it expects to complete the work for May. This leaves not just the 57,000 patients whose scans were not reviewed in the lurch but shakes the confidence of the hundreds of thousands of people that have had scans at Tallaght General Hospital in recent years.

On Timing

Timing is incredibly important here. Prof Conlon said he was informed of patients death yesterday at 4:30. Harney admitted she only knew about the scale of the problem yesterday. She admitted this morning that extra staff had been assigned to re-review patients’ x-rays. Would we have heard about this case if that patient had not died?

In some ways, the is the most shocking part of the scandal is the systemic foot-dragging in the HSE from X-ray to oversight in diagnosis and ministerial management. Foot-dragging at these different levels of the HSE is more than confidence-shaking, it’s an indictment of serious breaches in the most basic of parts of patient care - prevention. The modern Hippocratic Oath says “I will prevent disease whenever I can, for prevention is preferable to cure.” Indeed.

The HSE has established a helpline for patients and their families that are concerned about their treatment at Tallaght General Hospital.  Information and help is available on 1800 283 059. The helpline is open from 9am to 5pm.